Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.003475 0.003801 0.004148 0.004548 0.004997 0.005485 0.006059
2025-12-14 0.002890 0.003339 0.003853 0.004488 0.005256 0.006162 0.007320
2025-12-21 0.002524 0.003024 0.003620 0.004393 0.005379 0.006608 0.008281
2025-12-28 0.002281 0.002810 0.003466 0.004348 0.005522 0.007058 0.009259
2026-01-04 0.002122 0.002678 0.003389 0.004379 0.005749 0.007616 0.010426
2026-01-11 0.001959 0.002523 0.003262 0.004322 0.005837 0.007981 0.011348
2026-01-18 0.001827 0.002397 0.003160 0.004284 0.005940 0.008363 0.012328
2026-01-25 0.001709 0.002278 0.003057 0.004230 0.006006 0.008690 0.013250
2026-02-01 0.001625 0.002200 0.003003 0.004240 0.006165 0.009167 0.014462
2026-02-08 0.001533 0.002103 0.002913 0.004188 0.006219 0.009475 0.015423
2026-02-15 0.001443 0.002004 0.002813 0.004110 0.006222 0.009698 0.016253
2026-02-22 0.001389 0.001953 0.002780 0.004132 0.006387 0.010202 0.017656
2026-03-01 0.001356 0.001935 0.002801 0.004248 0.006728 0.011068 0.019915
2026-03-08 0.001284 0.001854 0.002719 0.004192 0.006774 0.011417 0.021224
2026-03-15 0.001212 0.001767 0.002624 0.004105 0.006755 0.011641 0.022306
2026-03-22 0.001155 0.001703 0.002558 0.004063 0.006812 0.012012 0.023759
2026-03-29 0.001118 0.001666 0.002535 0.004091 0.007000 0.012658 0.025931
2026-04-05 0.001067 0.001606 0.002469 0.004039 0.007028 0.012985 0.027417
2026-04-12 0.001024 0.001554 0.002415 0.004004 0.007086 0.013378 0.029131
2026-04-19 0.000981 0.001501 0.002356 0.003954 0.007110 0.013697 0.030714
2026-04-26 0.000951 0.001469 0.002330 0.003964 0.007253 0.014294 0.033134
2026-05-03 0.000914 0.001422 0.002275 0.003915 0.007273 0.014614 0.034869
2026-05-10 0.000875 0.001371 0.002210 0.003844 0.007237 0.014804 0.036274